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Latest Outlook
Summary map for March 2024 Hydrological Outlook

March 2024 Hydrological Outlook

Period: From March 2024      Issued on 08.03.2024 using data to the end of February 2024

The outlook for March is for above normal flows to persist in central, southern and eastern England, and these areas are likely to see normal to above normal flows over the March-May period. In the north and west, normal flows are most likely in March and for March – May. For Groundwater levels, above normal levels are likely to persist for most of the UK through March, and for the March – May period in many aquifer areas.

Rainfall:

February was a very wet month for England and Wales, and exceptionally wet across southern and central England, with many regions seeing the wettest February on record. Scotland, Northern Ireland and the far north of England saw near-average rainfall. The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 26.02.2024) for March favours near-average conditions but indicates that the chance of a wet month is higher than a dry one. The March – May forecast favours near-average conditions but with a slightly higher chance of the season being dry rather than wet.

River flows:

River flows in February were above normal across most of England and Wales, with widespread exceptionally high flows (and some new February maxima). For northern Britain, flows were in the normal range, with some above normal flows in northern Scotland. The forecast for March is for above normal flows in central, southern and eastern England, with a likelihood of notably or exceptionally high flows persisting in some catchments. For the north and west, normal flows are the most likely outcome. The March – May outlook is for a similar geographical contrast, but with normal to above normal flows in in the south and east, and a lower likelihood of exceptional flows. There is a slightly higher likelihood of below normal flows in the north and west, although normal flows remain the most likely outcome in these areas.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in February were mostly above normal, with the exception of a few boreholes in northern Britain. Exceptionally high levels were widespread across aquifers in England and Wales, with a number of new February maxima. The outlook for March is for a continuation of above normal levels across most of the UK, with widespread notably or exceptionally high levels, particularly in the Chalk aquifer. The three-month outlook indicates above normal levels will persist through the spring in many areas, but an increasing number of boreholes will see levels entering the normal range.