Period: From January 2026    Issued on 12.01.2026 using data to the end of December 2025

Rainfall: 

The first half of December was very wet, but the latter half was much drier. The December rainfall was slightly above average for the UK, but some areas were much wetter (e.g. southwest England and south Wales) while parts of Scotland and East Anglia were drier than average. The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 22.12.2025) indicates a slightly greater chance of dry conditions in January, whereas the three-month (January-March) outlook indicates a higher-than-normal chance of being wet. The forecast favours westerly airflows so wetter conditions are most likely to occur in northern and western areas, while the south and east could remain drier.

River flows:

December river flows were above normal for the  majority of the country, and exceptionally high in some western catchments, reflecting the wet start to the month and the sustained autumn rainfall. The exceptions were northern Scotland and parts of East Anglia and southern England where flows were in the normal range or below. While average flows for December were typically above normal, most rivers receded steeply with the drier late December weather (that extended into early 2026).   
The outlook for January is for flows to be in the normal range across most of the country, and normal to below normal in parts of southeast and eastern England. The outlook for January-March is for normal flows to predominate, except in  parts of northwest Britian where normal to above normal flows are likely, and parts of the southeast where normal to below normal flows are likely to persist.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in December were normal to above normal across most aquifer areas, with exceptionally high levels in some northern and central boreholes. Below normal levels were registered in Northern Ireland,  parts of Scotland and parts of the Chalk of East Anglia and the North Downs.
The January Outlook is for a broadly similar situation, with normal to above normal levels predominant except in parts of the Chalk of southeast England where normal to below normal levels are likely. The January – March outlook indicates a continuation of normal to below normal levels in these areas, but favours normal levels for the rest of the country, although above normal levels may persist in some aquifer areas.