Period: From October 2026    Issued on 08.10.2026 using data to the end of September 2026

Rainfall:

September’s rainfall was below average in many areas, with almost all of England experiencing less than 70% of their average rainfall, and parts of eastern England receiving less than 30%. Western Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of South-West Wales received above average rainfall. The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 28.09.2026) indicates October is likely to be warm, but the likelihoods of wet or dry conditions are evenly balanced, with near-normal conditions most probable. The three-month forecast is for a mild but wet October-December, with twice the normal likelihood of a wet start to winter.

River flows:

Low river flows persisted in much of England and Wales throughout September, with the low rainfall continuing the pattern of previous months. Exceptionally low flows continued in much of southern England, with the Tone recording a new September low. However, flows in north-west England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland were normal, and those in western Scotland above normal.

The outlook for October is that flows are likely to remain below normal across Wales and southern and eastern England but elsewhere flows are likely to be in their normal range. Over the period October-December the forecast for higher rainfall suggests that more responsive areas are likely to see increasing flows. Rivers in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, and southwest England are likely to be in the normal to above normal range. However, in the slower-responding groundwater-fed catchments of southeastern England flows are likely to remain below normal for the next three months.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels at the end of September remain low across many sites in England, especially in south Wales and southern England. Levels at sites in southern Scotland and north-west England are mostly normal. The outlook indicates that groundwater levels are likely to remain below normal in October, with some sites in southern and eastern areas notably or exceptionally low. Over the next three months, levels at most sites are expected to recover to their normal range, but below normal levels are likely to persist in several of the principal aquifers.