Period: From October 2025      Issued on 09.10.2025 using data to the end of September 2025

Rainfall: 

September’s rainfall was above average across much of the UK, especially in central and northern England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Many of these areas experienced more than 170% of their average rainfall. Much of this rainfall occurred in the first half of September. A few regions, including northern Scotland and East Anglia, received slightly below normal rainfall. The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 29.09.2025) indicates a slight signal for a warm and wet October, with a stronger signal for windy conditions. Over October-December, the forecast suggests that the next three months are likely to be mild but unlikely to be wet, with normal or below normal rainfall more probable. 

River flows:

River flows in September in central and northern England have largely recovered from their summer lows, with exceptionally high flows seen in Cumbria. This follows from September’s high rainfall in these regions. However, in groundwater-dominated areas of south-east England and in north-eastern Scotland flows remain notably low. New record lows were seen on the Deveron and Ythan in Aberdeenshire, with SEPA noting that water scarcity in this area remains significant. 
The outlook for October is that these patterns will largely continue, with flows in northern and western England, western Scotland and Northern Ireland likely to remain in the normal to above normal range. Groundwater-fed rivers in southern and eastern England are likely to have normal to below normal flows as the deeper aquifers will take longer to recharge. Current deficits in eastern Scotland are also likely to persist. Over the October-December period, England’s rivers are likely to be normal to below normal, while in Scotland most rivers are likely to recover and become normal to above normal. However, the below normal flows in eastern Scotland are likely to persist.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels at the end of September remain low in many of the principal aquifers, especially those in southern and eastern England, Northern Ireland and central Scotland. Elsewhere groundwater levels are largely normal or above normal. The outlook indicates that groundwater levels are likely to remain below normal over October, but with the potential for recovery in most areas over the next three months.